Softer Growth In Retail Sales & Weak Industrial Activity In US Raise Concerns For Macro Risk Outlook

US retail sales ticked higher in August, rising 0.2%–below several consensus forecasts but still a decent if unimpressive gain. Industrial output in the US in August, on the other hand, was clearly disappointing, suffering a 0.4% slide vs. the previous month—the weakest performance in three months. On a year-over-year basis, industrial activity also weakened, with growth dipping close to its lowest pace since the US recession ended in 2009. Does this add up to a clear signal that a new recession for the US is now fate? Some are tempted to make that call, but I’m not there yet, as I’ll explain.

Macro risk is certainly elevated, as I’ve been discussing for weeks (see here, for instance). But it’s still hard to quantitatively distinguish between what may turn out to be a run of slower growth vs. the start of an NBER-defined recession. For some, that’s a false distinction, but that’s an issue for another day. Meantime, let’s review today’s numbers from the comparatively reliable noise-filtering prism of rolling one-year percentage changes, starting with retail sales.

The headline data for consumer spending last month dipped to a 2.2% increase from the year-earlier level. Here too the trend is close to its weakest growth rate in six years. That’s a worrisome sign, but hardly fatal at this stage. Why? One reason is that when we exclude gasoline sales, the annual gain for retail spending is substantially higher, rising 4.4% a year through August. That’s below the pace that prevailed for much of last year, but it’s still a moderately healthy rate. The main takeaway: consumption excluding gasoline sales, which are lower due primarily to falling energy prices, remains relatively stable and rising at a moderate trend rate. Note the upward sloping trend line in the chart below for the trailing 24-month period.

Industrial activity, by contrast, looks noticeably weaker in annual growth terms. Output is still advancing, but at a sluggish pace: higher by just 0.9% for the year through August. That’s effectively a match with June’s 0.8% year-over-year increase—the lowest rate in six years. The manufacturing component’s a bit stronger, but here too the trend has turned unusually soft.