Cryptocurrency Technical Outlook: Bitcoin, Ether, Ripple And Litecoin

Despite a surge in broader market volatility, cryptocurrency have largely remained in consolidation this week with prices trading around key technical levels into the March open. Here are the levels to know in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin as we await these pending range-breaks. Is the broader correction in the crypto-bloc over? The technicals suggest we should find out soon – we’re not out of the woods just yet.

BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART

BTC/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Notes: Bitcoin prices closed February fractionally higher despite the early-month decline with the cryptocurrency trading with a well-defined range between the January lows at 9222 and 11160/71 where the December low converge on the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the record highs. The immediate focus heading into March trade is on a break of this range. Note that the RSI has continued to hold sub-60 after recovering from oversold conditions with the profile suggesting the risk remains weighted to the downside near-term.

Bottom Line: A breach above 12793 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario targeting a run on the 100% extension at 15119. A downside break risks a drop towards confluence support at 8159 with our broader bullish invalidation level steady at the 2018 low-day close at 7737. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor buying a dip into structural support OR a break & retest of basic trendline resistance extending off the record highs.

BITCOIN IG CLIENT POSITIONING

Bitcoin IG Client Sentiment

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Bitcoin- the ratio stands at +2.49 (71.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading

Long positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week

Short positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.