A few weeks ago investors were bemoaning a new bear market for equities, and there was much ink spilled drawing parallels between now in 2008-2009. Falling commodities, weakening growth, and prospects of Fed tightening saw the MSCI Emerging Market equity index fall 21.5% from early-November through the third week in January. Since then it has rallied more than 16%, and both yesterday and earlier today traded above where it finished 2015.
The rebound in emerging market shares appears to have been driven by the recovery in commodity prices. Copper, steel, nickel, oil and iron ore prices have moved higher. The Journal of Commerce Industrial Commodity Price Index has rallied since the third week in January, and yesterday reached its best level since mid-November.
Brazil’s Ibovespa exemplifies the rise in emerging market equities and commodities. It rallied by more than a third between January 20 and March 4 to its highest level since last August. Hopes of an imminent resolution of the political crisis may have added some froth at the end of last week, but the market has thus far held on to the lion’s share of its gains.
The MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index stopped yesterday just shy of the 800-806. This is important from a technical perspective. It corresponds to a 61.8% retracement of the decline from early-November and highs from last December. Watch the 780 area. A break below there would be the first sign that the upside correction may have run its course.
China has indicated it will shutter some of its excess capacity, and although officials have said it before, each time they do, many want to believe them. The general thrust of the National People’s Congress meeting is that supporting growth will take priority over reform. Addressing the excess capacity that plagues many industries runs contrary improving near-term growth prospects.
It is a mistake, however, to think that excess capacity is simply a Chinese problem. Look at what Fonterra, New Zealand’s milk coop said yesterday. It cut is price forecast and noted the global slump in milk prices would extend into the third year… The increase in European supplies, while (effective) demand in China and Russia eased means that there is greater supply than demand. What this means is that four of five dairy farmers in New Zealand are operating at a loss.
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