E Whatever Happened To Optimism ?

It’s been years since I’ve been in a classroom,  but Labor Day always reminds me of the first day of school and the giddy youthful optimism that accompanied it. The ritual of methodically preparing for the event because everything had to be perfect.  Breaking in that squeaky pair of leather loafers, a shiny fresh pencil box, a new Shaeffer fountain pen. Agonizing over what to wear that first day. You only had one shot. Blow it and you’d pay for it the rest of the year. 

Today the stock market is my “classroom” where for the past 27 years I have been paying tuition, learning and unlearning some very valuable lessons. Like learning that what the market is saying far outweighs the gurus, the gods, the pundits, the media, the bloggers. And in the 27 years I have been a student of the market, I have never seen so little optimism as right now. This could well be the most hated market I have ever seen. If you want to really get noticed today, just try saying something nice about it. You’ll be written off as a clueless permabull who flunked out of chart school.

This is a market where any good news is either questioned or ignored. It’s like it’s already a forgone conclusion that there can’t be anything good or positive to celebrate. The zeitgeist is to be zero happy. If there was a pure “negativity” index and the VIX, which is a measurement of PUT CALL activity, was at 40 (very high or bearish), the negativity index would be around 80!

But being the unapologetic contrarian that I am, I say bah to the naysayers and the dark embracers of doom. My DNA predestined me to a much more optimistic outlook on life. Given the choice, I will always err on the side of the sunny. So without further ado, I hereby present you with what I was able to find right now that should make all of the pessimists out there a little less paranoid about the future.

Think about this: 2013 was one of the best years ever for the S&P 500, up nearly 30%.