A Dollar Acceleration Phase Is Dead Ahead

USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG

Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference.

USDJPY continued its impulsive move to the upside yesterday in what may be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ brown. This evenings slide looked corrective and is in three waves at the moment. I have labelled yesterday’s action as wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ in pink.

Looking across the three USD cross rates that I follow in the nightly analysis I can see a common theme. That is; A Dollar acceleration phase is dead ahead!

In USDJPY, that should come in the form of wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (i) of [iii] Now thats a mouthful! Yesterday’s low of 109.62 id the short term support/ invalidation line.

This level needs to hold from here. The 4hr momentum is also looking bullish where we are on the verge of MACD and RSI bullish signals. For tomorrow, watch 110.27 for an upside break.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference.

Yesterday’s price action in the DOW brought another new all time high that is three in the last week. The action following the previous highs is a little concerning.

Let me explain.

The ending diagonal idea is gaining strength as the days go on. The contracting price range, The sudden drops from new highs, And an ever worsening market internals situation are all pointing to a nearby top.