The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Aircraft had been leading durable goods orders and due to extremely long lead times, that’s not a sign of strength. But it was not just aircraft orders that took a hit in the Census Bureau Durable Goods Advance Report.

New Orders

  • New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $9.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $239.7 billion.
  • Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent.
  • Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.7 percent.
  • Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $8.6 billion or 10.0 percent to $77.7 billion.

    • Shipments

  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up eight of the last nine months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $247.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase.
  • Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $81.3 billion.

    • Unfilled Orders

  • Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $1,140.9 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent December increase.
  • Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $771.8 billion.

    • Inventories

  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up eighteen of the last nineteen months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $408.5 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase.
  • Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, led the increase, $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $131.9 billion.

    • Capital Goods

    Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January decreased $1.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $73.6 billion.

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