Why Recession Is More Likely Than You Think

The debate over the economy has really heated up over the past few weeks since the Fed raised the funds rate. Some believe we are likely headed for recession. Others dismiss the idea out of hand.

Many times, these latter folks point to the yield curve as evidence there is no recession on the horizon.

2005: ‘Never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.’ 2015: ‘Never had a recession without an inverted yield curve.’

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 10, 2016

But it may not be that simple. Certainly, corporate earnings, even outside of the commodity sector are now in recession.

Non-commodity earnings trend is nasty https://t.co/e4HAGSGxhh #notjustenergy pic.twitter.com/ykqyyXBWA7

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 12, 2016

And the corporate credit markets are also suggesting we may be near an important turning point in the cycle.

Bonds Signal Credit Turning Point https://t.co/qbNLcQc7GF pic.twitter.com/gzwAXdZtxN

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 12, 2016

Other signs of economic activity have also slowed significantly including rail traffic…

Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy https://t.co/jXuTf2K7gI pic.twitter.com/zYbht46xFy

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 12, 2016

…and industrial production.

Chicago PMI comes in at 42.9. Has never been this low outside of recession. https://t.co/0MZenWJbFM pic.twitter.com/StekA8GP5t

— Charlie Bilello, CMT (@MktOutperform) December 31, 2015

On an anecdotal level, companies have been saying for months now that we are in an ‘industrial recession’ driven mainly by waning demand.

‘Manufacturing continues to deteriorate driven by waning demand, not an inventory correction.’ https://t.co/CejZxD9TK3

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) January 8, 2016

What’s more, equity markets around the world and here at home are now tipping their hand.