I May Be Making A “Bottom” Call Soon

For the last 4 years, we have heard most analysts and pundits call the end to the metals correction, only to see the market head lower.  And, many of them have done so many times.  However, if the market takes a direct route to the lower levels we have been targeting for the last several years then I may finally be calling the bottom myself for the first time.  While I will still be looking for “confirmation” with a 5 wave structure off those lows to be more certain, I am going to be viewing the next lower lows as potentially ending this 4+ year correction.

But, before I move into the charts, I want to point a few things out. This was a very interesting past week, as there were several things I noticed within various articles I read.

First, I was honored to be cited by a ZeroHedge article this past week, who noted that we have a “very good record of calling the wiggles of both the bear market since 2011 and the preceding bull market.”  But, their article was appropriately focused on the fact that many analysts believed that the last lows were the final lows, whereas we were the only one they cited which was still looking for a lower low.  They correctly concluded it was likely that a lower low was going to be seen.

But, a number of people were taking me to task this past week for ignoring the Fed and suggesting that market participants do the same.  So, I will be coming out with an article soon on KITCO about why this is the appropriate way to trade this market, and why those that have followed the Fed for cues about market direction in the metals or dollar have often wound up on the wrong side of this market.

So, now, let’s get to the charts.  As an overall perspective, I want to note that it is quite possible that the market simply takes a direct route to the lower lows, and completes this structure within the next month.  After thinking about this over the weekend, I have decided to view this as my “primary” count, but I am going to keep a very tight leash on that primary classification, since there is still a strong potential that we see that bigger bounce I was looking for last week before we head to the lower lows.