1. The Swiss National Bank increased its ownership of US equities by about $350 mln in Q3 to $38.95 bln. The SNB has a stake in some 2500 listed US companies. The Russell 2000 was marginally lower in the quarter. The SNB indicated that it increased its Apple stake to 10.3 mln shares from 9.4 mln in June. It increased is exposure to Exxon by roughly the same percentage (~10%) and increased its Microsoft stake by a little less (~9%).Overall the SNB, often regarded as a conservative central bank, has about 18% of its assets (~$546 bln) in equities.
2. China is poised to surpass Canada this year as the US largest trading partner. It would be the first time since 1985 when such data is available.In the first nine months of the year, goods trade between the US and China was $441 bln compared with $438.1 bln with Canada. The key factor is the drop in energy prices.US goods trade with Canada is off 11.6% this year while it is up 3.7% with China. It is about prices. In September, for example, the US imported 101.3 mln barrels of oil from Canada, the most this year, the second highest since 2010. That oil cost $3.9 bln, the second lowest bill since 2010.
3. Mexico auto exports in October were 4.7% below year ago levels. The main culprits are not the usual suspected.Exports to Europe were up 15%.They were up 38% to Latin America. Mexico’s auto exports to Africa were up 400%. However, the industry’s exports to the US were off 4.4% (despite the banner year of US auto sales) and off 4.2% to Asia.They were off 25% to Canada. In terms of production, Volkswagen output fell by a fifth. This was linked to a model changeover and not the emissions scandal. Toyota’s output jumped 81%. Total Mexican production in October was 1% below a year ago though domestic sales were up nearly 19%.
4. China has excess capacity in many industries, and the domestic slowdown and economic transition is exacerbating the surplus. This is spurring some industries to try to step up their exports, which in turn pushes prices down and heightens trade tensions.US Commerce Department heard the first of three cases filed by US corrosive-resistant steel producers against foreign producers from China, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Italy. In the preliminary findings, Commerce found subsidies for some Chinese producers are around 235%. Italian subsidies are estimated at a little more than 38%.Indian subsidies are a little below 8%. South Korean subsidies are estimated at 1.4%, and Taiwanese subsides are even less. There has been a surge of imports of this corrosive-resistant steel (84% over the past year) and has idled nearly a third of US capacity for this specialty steel. The US is threatening to impose retroactive tariffs, which is understood as a particularly forceful response.
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