AUD/USD Forecast Apr. 9-13 – The Downtrend Channel Doesn’t Fail

The Australian dollar closed lower for the fourth week in a row but did not record new lows for a change. Is it ready to recover? A speech by Phillip Lowe is the main event in a busy week. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged once again and did not indicate any change. Most Australian figures such as the trade balance and retail sales came out above expectations. However, China, Australia’s main trade partner is expecting slightly weaker growth according to the forward-looking PMI figures.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The Australian Industry Group showed solid growth in the construction sector with 56 points in February. The figure for March will likely be similar.

NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. This 350-strong survey by the National Australia Bank dropped to 9 points in February after two consecutive rises. The report for March may see a small rise.

Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Westpac survey of around 1200 consumers rose by 0.2% in March, a moderate change after significant swings in previous months. We will now get the fresh figure for April

Phillip Lowe talks: Wednesday, 5:05. The Governor of the RBA will speak at the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce in Perth, Western Australia. After he left the interest rate unchanged, he may shed some light on future moves by the RBA in this speech.

MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. This inflation gauge by the Melbourne Institute fills in the gap that the government leaves by publishing the CPI report only once per quarter.

Home Loans: Thursday, 1:30. Loans for purchasing homes disappointed in the past two months with significant falls. After a drop of 1.1% in January, the figure for February is projected to result in yet another slide: 0.3%.

RBA Financial Stability Review: Friday, 1:30. The RBA publishes the report on financial stability only twice per year, giving it more importance. The recent rise in Australian household debt may be in the limelight.