It’s a new world in the payer community, and…peak sales projections seem to be further off the mark than ever as the commercial kickback grows steadily worse but it is always interesting to see what analysts believe the big new drugs of the year are going to be worth 5 years down the road.

Written by John Carroll (ENDpts.com)

Clarivate Analytics has [done just that] listing in their Drugs to Watch report the 9 blockbusters their analysts expect to see approved by the FDA this year. Only 4 of them have yet to get the green light in early Q2…and, as outlined in their report, they estimate that their total sales will amount to $16 billion in annual revenue by 2021.

The top 9 are as follows:

  • Ocrevus, the new MS drug from Roche (RHHBY) with an estimated revenue stream of $3.3 billion in 2021.
  • Dupixent, the stellar eczema breakthrough from Regeneron (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY), is expected to hit $2.8 billion.
  • durvalumab from AstraZeneca (AZN) – $2.1 billion
  • semaglutide from Novo Nordisk (NVO) – $1.9 billion
  • Olumiant from Incyte (INCY) and Lilly (LLY) – $1.3 billion
  • ribociclib from Novartis (NVS) – $1.3 billion
  • avelumab from Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) – $1.2 billion
  • niraparib from Tesaro (TSRO) – $1.1 billion
  • KTE-C19 from Kite Pharma (KITE) – $.9 billion
  • Remember, these are just estimates and 2021 is a long, long way away.

    As usual, the pharma giants dominate the list, but biotech is clearly playing a big role in the lead-up to commercialization.

  • Tesaro — the new PARP player — makes the list along with Regeneron’s standout antibody team.
  • Incyte gets into the blockbuster lane, with Eli Lilly, on the impressive baricitinib, which is looking at a looming PDUFA date.
  • Kite just barely falls short of blockbuster status on this list with its pioneering and newly filed CAR-T, but something tells me they’ll give this one an extra push to see if they can break the mark earlier.