I was wrong.
I wrote last year that the economists in charge of monetary policy at the Fed were the worst economic forecasters on the planet. To wit:
“Importantly, while Janet Yellen suggested the Fed’s economic forecast was ‘not a weak one,’ the reality is it actually was. I have repeatedly stated over the last two years that we are in for a low growth economy due to debt deleveraging, deficits and continued fiscal and monetary policies that are retardants for economic prosperity. The simple fact is that when the economy requires roughly $4 of debt to provide $1 of economic growth – the engine of growth is broken.
Economic data continues to show signs of sluggishness, despite intermittent pops of activity, and with higher taxes, increased healthcare costs, and regulation, the fiscal drag on the economy could be larger than expected.
What is very important is the long run outlook of 2.15% economic growth. As shown in the chart below, real economic growth used to run close to 4%. Today, the Fed’s prediction is down markedly from the 2.7% rate they were predicting in 2011.”
Why anyone actually takes the Federal Reserve’s projections seriously is beyond me. However, as bad as the Fed is at making projections, the IMF has proven to be worse. To wit:
“Since 2010, the International Monetary Fund’s outlook for global growth has disappointed.
And every year, the IMF cuts its global growth forecast only to have that lowered forecast eventually prove too aggressive.
This chart, which comes from the Economic Report of the President, shows the sad state of global growth and perennially disappointed IMF forecasts.
And while the failure of these forecasts for one or two years out is notable, it might be most depressing to see the IMF’s 2011 forecast for 2016 gross-domestic-product growth of 5% miss the mark so widely.”
Leave A Comment