The Fed’s Unintended Consequences

In an effort to ward off the deflation bogeyman, central banks around the world have adopted unprecedented monetary measures. In fact, more central bank insanity may be on the way.

Meanwhile, corporations have taken advantage of near-zero interest rates and gorged themselves on debt.

Since the financial crisis, U.S. companies have accumulated $9.3 trillion in new debt. And as of the second quarter 2015, high-quality firms tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. had incurred $119 billion in interest expenses over the prior 12 months.

Unfortunately, this splurge was funded by a boatload of cheap debt, and that will turn into a major headache if deflation spreads further into the economy.

Even Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has noticed. It called the deterioration of corporate balance sheets “increasingly alarming.”

Bloomberg data shows that corporations now owe more in interest than ever in history. And their ability to service that debt – interest coverage – is at the lowest level since 2009.

Yet these same corporations continue sailing full speed ahead, shelling out record amounts for buybacks and dividends. Since 2009, U.S. corporations have bought back $2.4 trillion in shares. The top 30 S&P 500 (SPY) firms alone have repurchased $700 billion worth of stock between 2010 and 2014.

So far, that strategy has worked well. Indeed, companies following the buyback strategy since 2007 have outperformed the S&P 500 Index, according to Bloomberg.

Credit Suisse Group AG analysts even called the buyback binge “the engine of the rally in the U.S. in recent years.”

But the party may be coming to an end – and the law of unintended consequences may be ready to bite investors where it hurts – in the wallet.

Today, analysts are questioning whether the whole buyback and dividend binge was really worth it.

Larry Fink, head of investment management firm BlackRock Inc. wrote that companies are “underinvesting in innovation, skilled workforces, or essential capital expenditures.”