US Treasury Bonds Review

Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bonds’ overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

The US Treasury Bond vs S&P 500 ratio is 104 weeks old. BrST, a measure of the cycle of TIME for this impulse, has exceeded 3 (standard deviations). In other words, TIME up and the US Treasury Bond vs S&P 500 ratio is due for a rally. A rally in the ratio would materialize from a relative outperformance of bonds over stocks (either up or down).

Distribution of leverage across the futures & options market, a setup some experts are citing as decidedly bullish, is NOT statistically concentrated; DI is still significantly below 60%, so the distribution of leverage lacks sufficient energy to change the trend (chart). Hardly a decidedly bullish setup. LTLO, the flow of leverage that supports/leads price, is negative. Again, hardly a bullish setup. The invisible hand, the force that controls these trends, says the bulls are early and wrong, at least for now. DI and LTLO are dynamic messages that change on weekly basis in The Matrix. These are important trends to watch.