Summer Rumors

Oil prices were just struggling to find direction as rumors whirled about either a major drop or a major increase in oil inventory, depending on what whispers you wanted to believe. There also seemed to be a bit of a letdown after the U.S. Mexican trade deal, as the focus immediately shifted as to whether our neighbors to the North were willing to jump on board. Then you have a bank holiday in Europe yesterday, as well as the upcoming Labor Day weekend in the U.S., and it is the perfect environment for wild speculation about a major increase or decrease in supply.

Yet, despite the rumors of something big is about to happen, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report was a bit of a letdown. The API reported that U.S. crude supply increased by a measly 38,000 barrels and the average guess was for a draw of 500,000 barrels, based on a curve the difference may have been a rounding error.

Besides, the API reported that supplies in Cushing Oklahoma increased by 130,000 barrels, much less than the 500,000 to 750,000 barrels that was being bandied about. Even the gasoline supply number was anticlimactic, increasing by 21,000 barrels. Distillates also saw an increase of 928,000 barrels, a bit bearish but overall a very mixed report.

Now if you put that against a backdrop where consumer confidence is at an 18-year high, and stock markets breaking records, the numbers don’t look all that bearish. But at the same time, they are not really all that bullish either. So, bring on the Energy Information Administration report and put these rumors to rest.

You are also going to have to be prepared for the impact of lost oil from Iran. The Wall Street Journal reports that “Iran oil shipments are declining at a faster-than-expected pace ahead of U.S. sanctions set to begin in November. Iran expects crude exports to fall by a third in September, according to people familiar with purchasing plans, potentially posing an unforeseen supply risk to markets. Officials at the state-run National Iranian Oil Co. provisionally expect crude shipments to drop to about 1.5 million barrels a day next month, down from about 2.3 million barrels a day in June, say people familiar with the country’s ports loading program. Many experts had expected oil shipments to decline by about 1 million barrels by year’s end. Now some of them say that fall may have already happened. Iran hasn’t yet announced its exports this month or its forecast for next month.”