The ISM Manufacturing survey improved but continued in expansion. The key internals are in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing Index is in positive territory but declined.

Analyst Opinion of the ISM Manufacturing Survey

Based on these surveys and the district Federal Reserve Surveys, one would expect the Fed’s Industrial Production index growth rate remain about the same as last month. Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession. This month the ISM survey went up and the Markit survey down – go figure.

From Nasdaq / Econoday:

  Consensus Range Consensus Actual Markit Manufacturing 54.5 to 54.7 54.5 54.7 ISM Manufacturing 56.5 to 58.1 57.6 61.3

From the Markit PMI Manufacturing Index:

PMI dips to five-month low in July

  • PMI indicates strong improvement in operating conditions
  • Rates of output and new order growth ease but remain solid
  • Inflationary pressures soften
  • August data indicated a strong overall improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The upturn was supported by further rises in output and new orders, and a renewed increase in export sales. That said, production rose at the weakest rate for almost a year. The latest upturn in new business drove solid increases in employment and backlogs. Meanwhile, rates of both input price and output charge inflation softened to six- and five-month lows, respectively. On a positive note, business confidence improved and reached a three-month high.
  • The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 54.7 in August, down from 55.3 in July. Although signalling the weakest improvement in operating conditions since last November, the PMI indicated a strong overall manufacturing performance. Moreover, the latest figure remained well above the long-run series average.

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