Dollar/CAD drifted back up in a week that was mostly about a risk-off atmosphere. What’s next? The BOC’s Business Outlook and a double-feature Friday stand out. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Stock markets tumbled down and the ensuing risk-off atmosphere weighed on the loonie, a risk currency. The Canadian Dollar also struggled with falling oil prices and some profit-taking in the aftermath of the new NAFTA deal. The greenback pared back some of its gains later in the week as inflation and consumer confidence fell short of expectations.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. The Bank of Canada’s quarterly survey has proved to be very impactful on past occasions. The Ottawa-based institution used this report to hint about changes in monetary policy. They may certainly cement the upcoming rate hike in this event. The decision is due in the following week.
  • Foreign Securities Purchases: Tuesday, 12:30. This publication relates to the money flowing into Canada. In the past few months, the figures exceeded expectations. Back in July, the surplus was 12.65 billion. A similar figure is likely now.
  • Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Sales at the manufacturing level have implications for the broader economy. Sales were quite upbeat in the past three months, climbing by 0.9% in July. We may see worse data in August.
  • ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:30. The payrolls software provider publishes the employment report after the official figure, but it still serves as useful information. A modest increase of 13.6K was reported after three strong months. Another rise is likely in the publication for September. Significant upward revisions were seen in recent months.
  • Inflation: Friday, 12:30. The Consumer Price Index report for August was mediocre: headline CPI fell by 0.1% while core CPI advanced by only 0.1%. The Common CPI stood at 2%, the Trimmed at 2.2%, and the Median CPI at 2.1%, all stable. We will now get the data for September, which is the last set of figures before the BOC decision in the following week.
  • Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. This publication competes with the inflation report and can steal the show. Back in July, retail sales moved up by 0.3%. More importantly, core retail sales enjoyed a robust rise of 0.9%. We will now get the numbers for August, somewhat belated, but that does not imply a lack of impact on USD/CAD.
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