Is Money Creation Fueling The Stock Market Surge?

Is it true that changes in money supply are an important driving force behind changes in the stock price indexes?

Intuitively it makes sense to argue that an increase in the growth rate of money supply should strengthen the growth rate in stock prices.

Conversely, a fall in the growth rate of money supply should slow down the growth momentum of stock prices. 

Some economists who follow the footsteps of the post-Keynesian (PK) school of economics have questioned the importance of money in driving stock prices.1 It is held that rises in stock prices provide an incentive to liquidate long-term saving deposits, thereby boosting the money supply.

The received money then employed in buying stocks and other financial assets. According to the PK the trend is reversed when stock prices are falling. Hence, changes in stock prices cause changes in money supply and not the other way around.

The Definition of Money Supply

In today’s monetary system, coins and notes constitute the standard money, known as cash. At any point in time part of the stock of cash is stored, that is, deposited in banks. Once an individual places his money in a bank’s warehouse he is in fact engaging in a claim transaction. In depositing his money, he never relinquishes money with a bank, he continues to have an unlimited claim against it and is entitled to take charge of it at any time. These deposits, labelled demand deposits, are part of money. Thus, if in an economy people hold $10,000 in cash, we would say that the money supply of this economy is $10,000. But, if some individuals have stored $2,000 in demand deposits, the total money supply will remain $10,000: $8,000 cash and $2,000 in demand deposits—that is, $2,000 cash is stored in bank warehouses. Finally, if individuals deposit their entire stock of cash, the total money supply will remain $10,000, all of it in demand deposits.

This must be contrasted with a credit transaction, in which the lender of money relinquishes his claim over the money for the duration of the loan. Credit always involves a creditor’s purchase of a future good in exchange for a present good. As a result, in a credit transaction, money is transferred from a lender to a borrower.