Bank Of Canada (BoC) Preview: Dovish Rate-Hike To Fuel USD/CAD Strength

TRADING THE NEWS: BANK OF CANADA (BOC) INTEREST RATE DECISION

The Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting may shake up the near-term outlook for USD/CAD as the central bank is expected to increase the benchmark interest rate to 1.75% from 1.50%.

A 25bp rate-hike paired with a hawkish policy statement may trigger a bullish reaction in the Canadian dollar as the updates suggest Governor Stephen Poloz & Co. will step up the pace to normalize monetary policy, and a material shift in the forward-guidance may curb the recent advance in USD/CAD as market participants prepare for a faster hiking-cycle.

However, a dovish BoC rate-hike may trigger fresh monthly highs in the dollar-loonie exchange rate as it suggests the central bank will carry a wait-and-see approach into 2019, and the Canadian dollar may continue to lose ground against its U.S. counterpart especially as the Federal Reserve warns of above-neutral interest rates. 

IMPACT THAT THE BOC RATE DECISION HAS HAD ON USD/CAD DURING THE LAST MEETING

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP

2018

09/05/2018 14:00:00 GMT

1.50%

1.50%

+32

+14

September 2018 Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision

USD/CAD 5-Minute Chart

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.50%, and it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs as ‘GDP growth is expected to slow temporarily in the third quarter, mainly because of further fluctuations in energy production and exports.’ Nevertheless, it seems as though the BoC will continue to normalize monetary policy over the coming months as ‘recent data reinforce Governing Council’s assessment that higher interest rates will be warranted to achieve the inflation target.’