EJ Antoni Worries About The Gap Between CES NFP And CPS Employment

Image Source: PexelsFrom a X post today:There have been widening gaps between NFP and civilian employment in the recent, which he takes as evidence of serious overcounting of employment in the CES. It’s important to realize the CPS estimate of civilian employment depends on estimates of the population (including immigration). Using CBO’s measures of immigration (instead of relying on BLS population controls), I calculate an alternative employment measure. Using this, I get a picture of log ratios of NFP to civilian employment like this:Figure 1: Ratio of CES NFP to CPS civilian employment (black), of CES NFP to civilian employment adjusted for CBO immigration estimates (tan), of CES preliminary benchmark implied NFP adjusted for CBO immigration estimates (bold green), on log scale. Source: BLS, CBO, NBER, and author’s calculations.Using the preliminary benchmark to adjusted civilian employment provides a much less alarming picture.By the way, Dr. Antoni has again used, without nuance, the official estimates of native born and foreign born employment (which uses the same population controls mentioned above) in his latest screed on the subject of the Great (Labor) Replacement Theory.More By This Author:Business Cycle Indicators – Employment For November 2024 France’s Sovereign Debt Situation: Some GraphsA Contrarian View On Recession Probabilities: Are We Out Of The Woods?