E Wyckoff Focus – Why Is S&P500 Not Ready To Surge Again?

Point 1 – Selling Climax

On February 8 the price falls sharply below the previous support with a great volume. Panic is in the air, bad news is widely spread everywhere and there’s no sign of strength, neither a hint of reaction. The very next day the price reacts, supported by what we can assume is a qualify demand. This is what we call a classic Selling Climax.

Point 2 – Automatic Rally

The market surges in 6 up bars in a row with a good volume. This is a technical rebound called automatic rally. February 15 and 16 the market hits resistance and despite the effort the price can’t do any further progress as shown by the two closes at the same level. The market needs to retrace.

Point 3 – Secondary Test

In point 3 we notice testing progress in slowdown move with three days’ close in a small range and  shrinking volume. The selling pressure we found in point 1 is vanished, the price can go up.

Point 4

The price surges above the previous resistance but the volume is not high. In fact February 27 the price sharply reacts from the top, violating previous day’s low and falling again below the resistance. A down move is about to come.

Point 5

The market falls promptly below the previous support found at point 3. Volume and Bars spread is wide, this is the first sign of weakness we find from the February 8th fall, indicating that some strong supply is still present.

Point 6

Price rises slower than the fall at point 5. Probably the market will not get through the resistance level due to lack of the price progress in the last three days and the fact that while the price was approaching the resistance the volume was not high.   

Conclusion

We think that the market is still showing a strong supply in comparison with relative lack of demand, a fact that can lead the price to go down again around the n. 5 support level and if it will break it, it can reach the February 9 low to test the supply-demand balance again.