Brexit Deal “Sufficient Progress” Made: Divorce Talk Round Two Begins

UK Prime Minister Theresa May caved in on enough things allowing the EU negotiators to proclaim “Sufficient Progress”.

“Sufficient Progress” Declared

Brexit: European Commission recommends sufficient progress to the European Council (Article 50) https://t.co/7YJLdK4auy #euco #Brexit

— European Commission (@EU_Commission) December 8, 2017

Devil in the Details

We are headed to round two of trade talks after Theresa May caved in on enough points to satisfy the EU.

First, everyone had to make Northern Ireland happy or it threatened to withdraw support for Theresa May which in turn would collapse the British government.

Here is the Ireland problem: To meet the demands of the EU, there must be borders. To meet the demands of Northern Ireland, there cannot be a border.

What satisfied everyone was circular logic that simultaneously says there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland while having a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Eurointelligence Explains

Brexit deal is still a fudge not addressing substantive dilemma N Ireland faces. But it is a necessary fudge. – https://t.co/VKWTz4IeXi

— Wolfgang Munchau (@EuroBriefing) December 8, 2017

What changed the politics was an insertion into the agreement that guarantees the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK.

“In the absence of agreed solutions… the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.”

I have no idea how that solves any problems and no one else does either because it is logically impossible. However, the statement is cloudy enough to satisfy everyone for the time being.