FX Week Ahead: Central Bank Meetings

The markets head into a busy week that sees some of the major central bank monetary policy meetings lined up. This week, the RBA, the Bank of Japan, the ECB and the BoC will be holding their monetary policy meetings. Despite the line up of the central bank meetings, no major changes are expected from either of the central bank monetary policy decisions.

The European Central Bank which meets on Thursday will of course stand out. The ECB will be releasing the quarterly economic projections which could offer more insights for the markets on the forward guidance. However, some risks still remain for a dovish view from the ECB.

On the economic front, the line up this week includes Friday’s nonfarm payroll report as well as the monthly unemployment report from Canada. China will be releasing its annual inflation figures for the month of February while manufacturing and industrial production figures from the UK along with GDP numbers from Japan will keep the week busy.

Here’s a quick recap of the key economic events due this week.

ECB: Will Draghi maintain the status quo?

Officials at the European Central Bank will be meeting this week for their monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected at this meeting as the Eurozone interest rates and QE purchases are widely expected to remain unchanged.

With a broadly improving economic picture in the Eurozone, investors will be no doubt shifting focus to the forward guidance from the ECB and the language in its statement. While the ECB officials initially toyed with the idea of changing the language in its statement to be more in tune with an expanding economy, the previous ECB meeting minutes revealed the opposite. The minutes showed that officials were hesitant to change the language amid inflation staying below the ECB’s target rate.

This could lead to some potential dovish comments from the ECB as the euro currency which has risen to strong levels in recent weeks takes a breather. The higher exchange rate is also expected to impact inflation.