Technically Speaking: Predicting The Future Is Difficult

Last week, as traders were all on vacation, the market surged to 2600 as the “inmates ran the asylum.” The expectation of a better than anticipated shopping holiday season and ongoing hopes of “tax cuts and reform” lifted stocks higher. The current advance, is still working the general year-end pattern I laid out three weeks ago as shown below.

With earnings season nearing its conclusion, the markets will begin to focus more heavily on the economic data which has been weak as of late. Furthermore, with the Fed continuing to hike rates, and professional investors waiting to take gains until January, the risk of a Q1 sell-off has risen markedly in recent weeks. This is particularly the case given the short-term deviation from longer-term trends in the market.

The chart below shows the percentage deviation above the 3-year monthly moving average. Previous deviations have resulted in an eventual reversion to, or beyond, the 3-year moving average. A reversion to the monthly moving average currently would entail a -15.8% decline. While such a decline would not register as a “bear market,” which would require a 20% decline, given the record length of time without so much as a 3% correction, such a decline will certainly “feel” like a bear market.

A correction back to the moving average would not require an “earth-shattering” event. A recognition of the Fed continuing to tighten monetary policy into a weak economic cycle, a “buy the rumor/sell the news” mentality around the tax reform plan, a failure to pass tax reform, or a litany of other unanticipated events could send markets lower. Importantly, a correction of that magnitude would NOT change the longer-term bullish trend of the market.

While our portfolios remain allocated towards equity risks currently, we remain keenly of aware of the risks we are currently undertaking. 

The reason I focus so much on managing risk is because trying to predict anything about the market is nothing more than a “guess.”

Predicting The Future Is Difficult

Neils Bohr, a Nobel prize-winning Danish physicist who made foundational contributions to the understanding of atomic structure and quantum theory, is credited to have once said:

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”