Going back to 2014, it was common for whenever whatever economic data point disappointed that whomever optimistic economist or policymaker would overrule it by pointing to “global growth.” It was the equivalent of shutting down an uncomfortable debate with ad hominem attacks. You can’t falsify “global growth” because you can’t really define what it is.
Japan was common then among the world’s various economies to be relying so much on it. As I wrote that September:
The curious part about that “pick-up in global demand” is exactly what I am driving at. What he [BoJ Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata] is saying is that the economy in Japan will get better because some nebulous notion of the global economy will get better; or, if you want to be specific, they expect the economy to improve because the economy is expected to improve. While he (and those like him) will not admit to engaging such circular logic, that is what it really amounts to…
It became a staple of mainstream analysis because it was easy and non-specific. And in many ways it has become so again, in 2017 perhaps even to that much more of an impressive (sounding) degree. This time around not only is “global growth” supposedly picking up, it is doing so in synchronized fashion. Being applied to Japan again and more so China, it’s the first time in seven or perhaps ten years, apparently, that this has happened – therefore we are meant to be very impressed by it even if it still remains undefined.
This year is shaping up to be the most synchronized for global growth since the immediate aftermath of the last recession, in a development that could ease the burden on the U.S. as the world’s economic engine.
And:
All the major economies of the globe and the companies that make them up are picking up steam at the same time right now, the first such simultaneous recovery in years.
This is making the phrase “global synchronous recovery” among the favorites of bulls on Wall Street.
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