The Saving Rate Conundrum

The economy is booming.

Employment is at decade lows.

Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years.

The stock market is at record highs and climbing.

Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade.

Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

What’s not to love?

I just have one question. If things are so good, then why is America’s saving rate posting such a sharp decline?

The answer is not surprising. Despite the bullish economic optics, the reality for the majority of Americans is they simply have not yet recovered from the financial crisis. As the chart below shows, while savings spiked during the financial crisis, the rising cost of living for the bottom 80% has outpaced the median level of “disposable income” for that same group. As a consequence, the inability to “save” has continued.

I discussed previously the problem of rising debt. Beginning in 1990, the gap between the “standard of living” and real disposable incomes went negative with the resultant “gap” filled through the use of debt. However, since the financial crisis, this has no longer been the case. I modified the previous chart with the savings rate which tells the same story, as the cost of living began outpacing incomes the difference came from savings, and a continuous increase in debt. Again, despite the temporary uptick in the savings rate following the financial crisis, the real cost of living continues to erode the middle class.

You can see erosion of the savings rate even more clearly when you look at the rate of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth as compared to debt growth. As spending and debt accelerated, the savings rate declined. More importantly, in 2000 the growth rate of debt sharply accelerated above PCE growth. This debt fueled consumption, however, does not lead to stronger rates of economic growth.