Early today, I saw a prominent article declaring that the low for 2016 was in, because there have been a couple of recent years in which early February marked the bottom for the year as well. Ummm, OK. This, to me, is about as meaningful as getting excited every October, simply because huge market crashes seem to take place during that month (like in 1929, 1987, 1990, and 2008, just to name a few). It’s dumb.
Indeed, if there’s anything I’ve noticed about recent market action, it’s that intermediate highs take place at the very start of each month. It’s actually kind of freaky, and this didn’t dawn on me until I began writing this list post. I’ve circled about the 1st of November, December, January, and February below. I’ve also tinted the brief drop which, according to some, is the entirety of the 2016 Bear Market, and it’s all blue skies ahead from here on.
What I think is far more germane that speculating on calendar peculiarities is that, in front of our eyes, we are witnessing the collapse of confidence in those central banker nimrods. It was only one week ago as I am typing these words that Kuroda unleashed negative interest rates on his beleaguered, doomed nation. You want to know how long this explosive announcement last to create the effect he wanted? NOT EVEN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. This dipsh*t got less than ONE DAY of the action he wanted, and then…epic, epic fail.
You think the market’s going to go up for the balance of 2016? Trade that way. Yeah, the bears have some risk between present price levels and maybe as high as 2000 on the S&P 500. But that 100 points of risk is smaller than the more than 300 points of opportunity I see to the downside this year. The notion that the bottom is in for the entire year is, to my way of thinking, just plain wrong.
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