Household Finances Still In Good Shape Despite Deterioration Says Deutsche Bank

The average consumer’s household finances aren’t in as good as shape as they were, but Deutsche Bank economists still think consumers have enough buying power to keep the economic recovery chugging along steadily. Their recent study supports findings from another firm that also suggested consumers are doing pretty well. In February, Goldman Sachs concluded that the U.S. consumer is in good shape as the personal saving rate was still high even though economic growth in areas that affect consumers is slowing.

Buying power still “relatively robust”

DB Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna and team looked at household finances from various angles to gauge how U.S. consumers are doing economically, the first of which was buying power. They report in their March 23 quarterly update on household finances that  in general, consumers’ buying power worsened “slightly” over the course of last year. However, they also said their ability to spend is still “relatively robust,” adding that consumer spending will probably continue to be the economy’s steadiest section.

In measuring the buying power part of household finances, the Deutsche Bank team looks at cash flow changes and borrowing ability. Greater buying power fuels consumption as consumers either spend out of their cash holdings or borrow (or use credit cards, etc.) to pay for bigger expenditures. They don’t factor in financial assets because they see little evidence that consumers borrow against them meaningfully.

Jobs, payroll growth slowed in 2015

LaVorgna and team found that cash flow deteriorated slightly last year because job growth declined compared to 2014. They report a $611 billion increase in personal income and a $146 billion increase in tax payments. After including small increases in mortgage and non-mortgage interest payments, they found that household cash flow climbed $451 billion last year. The DB team added that this is much less than the $581 billion gained over the course of 2014, citing slowing job growth as one of the main reasons.