US Business Cycle Risk Report – Tuesday, November 21

US economic activity continues to trend solidly positive in the latest roundup of numbers. In turn, recession risk remains virtually nil, based on the available data through October. The near-term outlook looks upbeat, too, suggesting that the recent strength in GDP growth will continue in the fourth quarter.

Using preliminary numbers published to date paints a rosy profile for a broad set of indicators. Indeed, the only headwind at the moment is in the oil market: crude prices have been trending higher in recent months in year-over-year terms. Otherwise, the data points to a solid pace of economic output in recent history.

Not surprisingly, the outlook for Q4 GDP growth looks bullish, according to several forecasts. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting (as of Nov. 17) that output will pick up to 3.4% in the final three months of the year, moderately above the 3.0% rise in Q3. The New York Fed’s Q4 estimate (Nov. 17) is even higher at 3.8%. Wall Street economists, however, are anticipating that growth will cool slightly in Q4 to a 2.8% pace, based on CNBC’s survey at last week’s close.

Meantime, the latest estimate of recession risk for the US remains low, based on The Capital Spectator’s business-cycle benchmarks, which reflect a diversified set of economic datasets. Most of the underlying indicators for October have been published and the majority continue to reflect a positive trend. (For a more comprehensive review of the macro trend on a weekly basis, see The US Business Cycle Risk Report.)

Aggregating the data in the table above continues to translate into a positive bias overall. The Economic Trend and Momentum indices (ETI and EMI, respectively) remain well above their respective danger zones (50% for ETI and 0% for EMI). When/if the indexes slide below those tipping points, the declines will mark clear warning signs that recession risk is elevated and a new downturn is likely. The analysis is based on a methodology that’s profiled in my book on analyzing the business cycle.