Week 4 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic improved year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements but the weekly railcar counts remained deeply in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average -7.3 % accelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average -9.3 % decelerating decelerating 52 week rolling average -3.5 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

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