Euro Ready To Pass 1.0950 Resistance

Yesterday’s Trading:

My Tuesday’s expectations came off in full. The euro/dollar fell one point short of the 1.0940 target. The falling stock indices and oil prices helped the euro strengthen.

The European stock indices fell by 2% on average and the US ones fell from between 1.9% and 2.3%. Brent fell 4.5% to $32.50. The price of oil came under pressure after the National Iranian Oil Company’s (NIOC) CEO Javadi came out saying that Iran is to up its exports to 2.3 million barrels per day this year.

Main news of the day (EET):

10:15 – 11:00, service sector PMI (Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Eurozone);

11:30, UK service sector PMI;

12:00, Eurozone December retail sales;

15:15, US ADP January employment changes;

16:45, US service sector PMI from Markit for January;

17:00, ISM January business activity index;

17:30, US oil reserve changes.

Market Expectations:

The main news for today is the UK PMI and ADP, in addition to PMI and ISM data from the US. As soon as the euro/pound cross U-turns upwards, I expect to see a break in the trend line.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday target maximum: 1.0962, minimum: 1.0896, close: 1.0928;

Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 102 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading close to the LB. On my forecast I’ve gone for a fall in the euro to 1.0896/1.0900, with a subsequent rebound to 1.0962. If the rate doesn’t recoil from 1.0900, ready yourselves for a flat until Thursday. If we see a fall below 1.0890, the euro will head for 1.0860.