Another Headline Head Fake—The Consumer Can’t Save The U.S. Economy

After a week in which all the big retailers—Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom’s (JWN), Gap (GPS), JC Penney (JCP), Dillard’s (DDS)—reported exceedingly downbeat results for their April quarter, it is not surprising that the Census Bureau’s statistical fabrication mill reported robust April retail sales. Likewise, you could count on the financial press to trot out the superlatives, as in the case of the Reuters’ headline proclaiming, “U.S. retail sales rise strongly, boost economic outlook”:

U.S. retail sales in April recorded their biggest increase in a year as Americans stepped up purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum after growth almost stalled in the first quarter…….”The retail sales report shows that recent claims of the demise of the U.S. consumer have been greatly exaggerated,” said Steve Murphy, a U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

Not exactly. Retail sales of $450.89 billion in April were down 2% from $460.1 billion in March.

Yes, April has one fewer day than March so there is a matter of seasonal adjustment. But that’s where the shenanigans start.

The Census Bureau reported seasonally adjusted April sales of $453.44 billion, up by a headline catching 1.3% from March.

But then again, based on the seasonal adjustment factor used in 2011, the SA number would have been $450.35 billion, up only 0.6%; and had the 2014 seasonal adjustment factor been used, headline sales would have been $452.6 billion, representing an in-between gain of 1.0%.

Then we also have Easter falling in April during both of the latter two years versus March 27th this time; and in all years there were April showers, too, normal or not!

For crying out loud, seasonally-maladjusted, weather-whacked single month deltas from the rickety government statistical mills are only one step removed from noise. But they are seized upon by the financial press because the latter are exceedingly lazy and always on the prowl for anything that might be “good news” for the stock averages.

But that’s what Bubble Finance has come to. Namely, a cult of the daily stock market that is so myopic, superficial and sycophantic that it has practically reduced financial journalism to noise, as well.

To be sure, there is plenty of information in the Census Bureau on-line data base that shows in an instant that the vaunted American consumer is running out of steam. As will be documented further below, there is not a snowball’s chance that the debt besotted consumer can save the US economy from the demise that lies ahead.