WTI tumbles below $47 as negative sentiment about excess crude supply in light of extended refiners shutdowns grows, and Wall Street piles on with more detailed estimates about Harvey’s impact on US oil and refinery production.

As oil slides, crack spreads have stabilized near the highs of the session, on concerns about gasoline availability, with Tudor Pickering saying that crack spreads could continue to rise in coming weeks in other U.S. regions served by the Gulf Coast refining center.

 

As reported earlier, about 15% of U.S. refining capacity was offline Monday morning as the remnants of Hurricane Harvey continued to pound Texas and the Gulf Coast.

 

Furthermore, the reason why oil is rapidly sinking is that according to Goldman’s (and others’) estimates, Harvey’s impact would be to significantly increase domestic crude availability by 1.4 million barrels every day, while removing 615-785 kb/d of gasoline and 700 kb/d of distillate supplies.

And while some of the biggest refining companies in the world were affected, analysts expect shares of refiners to rise this week on wider crude differentials and stronger crack spreads. Mid-continent refiners like Delek US Holdings Inc. and HollyFrontier Corp. may be best positioned to outperform, and PBF Energy Inc. could also benefit given its exposure to the northeast. Here is Bloomberg’s summary of why while it expects further pain for oil bulls, Wall Street is now bullish on refiners:

Wells Fargo (Roger Read)

  • In prior major hurricane strikes on the Gulf Coast, shares of refiners have outperformed the major indices by 6%-19% in the 10-20 days following landfall
  • Harvey is expected to hover over southeast Texas through the middle of the week and refinery disruptions are expected to persist, with crack spreads remaining elevated and refining equities responding positively
  • Estimates more than a quarter of Gulf Coast refining capacity is offline, or about 15% of total U.S. refining capacity
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