Fourth Quarter Begins With Global Stock Rally As Bad Economic News Is Again Good

The bad economic news started with Japan’s Large Manufacturing Tankan missing expectations of +13, printing at +12 while, as Goldman summarized, “outlook DIs show across-the-board deterioration in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries” once again bringing up the question whether the BOJ will boost QE later this month.

Then it was China’s official and Caixin PMIs which as we reported, confirmed the economy remains in contraction, even if it is no longer in freefall mode. The Markit final September print was 47.2, the lowest since March 2009 while the Composite PMI was the lowest ever. And since Chinese stocks were closed for the next week, it was up to S&P futures to set the mood, which they did by soaring as soon as the disappointing PMI numbers hit:

Then it was Europe’s turn, where disappointing PMI came fast and furious. The final Euro area manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0 in September, in line with the flash. Between August and September, the Euro area manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3pt from 52.3 to 52.0

On a country basis, German manufacturing PMI fell on the month (53.3 to 52.3), as did the Italian (53.8 to 52.7) and Spanish prints (53.2 to 51.7). Ironically the only rebound was in what many suggest is core Europe’s worst performing economy, France, where the manufacturing PMI strengthened from 48.3 to 50.6.

According to Goldman, “The PMI breakdown across subcomponents in September was weak. Both manufacturing output and employment fell, by 0.4pt and 0.5pt respectively. The order-to-stock difference fell marginally by 0.9pt in September, reflecting a weakening in new orders and an increase in stocks of finished goods.”

Of particular attention was Spain where the recent miracle “recovery” has now fizzled and the economy appears to have entered the downward phase of the dead cat bounce.

In short, between bad and/or deteriorating data in Japan, China and Europe, at least someone will step up and add to the liquidity spigots. That, in a nutshell, is the conditioned Pavlovian markets’ thinking as usual.

Finally, a catalyst that may be helping the market’s mood start the new quater on the right foot is the rebound, at least for now, in Glencore stock which as of moments ago managed to wipe out its entire 27% Monday plunge, as even more sellside analysts – all of whom have been wrong on the stock – came out in defense of the company.

Any incremental price increases from here will be far more complicated.

Looking around at regional market action, Asian equity markets tracked the gains seen on Wall Street, where US equities pared some of their worst quarterly losses since 2011. The rebound in commodities bolstered the ASX 200 (+1.8%), while Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) extended on yesterday’s gains as USD/JPY remained near its highs, while the BoJ Tankan survey showed capex plans are firmer than expected, despite Large Tankan Manufacturing Outlook (10 vs. Exp. 10) declining the 1st time in 3 quarters. Furthermore, Japanese lawmaker Yamamoto continued to call for BoJ easing at the end of the month. While the Nikkei reported that Japan’s GPIF is to invest in foreign junk bonds. As noted above, markets in mainland China are closed until Oct. 7th due to the Golden Week Holiday and Hong Kong is also closed for a holiday.

Stocks in Europe came off the best levels of the session but remain in the green (Euro Stoxx: +1.0%) following the release of less than impressive EU based PMIs. At the same time , the downside in equities supported the recovery by Bunds, which too had to contend with a raft of supply from Spain and France. Nevertheless, the upside was led by energy and basic materials sectors, amid the ongoing recovery by Glencore (+5.8%) and VW (+3.7%).