Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 13 And March 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 13

       

March 14

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

105.0

105.9

105

           

Producer Price Index – February

0.1%

0.4

0.1

 

PPI Core

0.2

0.2

0.2

           

March 15

       

Consumer Price Index – February

0.1%

0.6

0.2

 

CPI Core

0.2

0.3

0.2

           

Retail Sales – February

0.1%

0.4

0.1

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.1

0.8

0.2

           

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

16.0

18.7

15.7

 

Business Inventories – January

0.3%

0.3

0.3

 

NAHB Index – March

66

65

66

 

FMOC

0.875%

0.625

0.875

           

March 16

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

243

243

242

           

Housing Starts – February

1.260M

1.246

1.266

 

Building Permits

1.270

1.285

1.267

           

Philadelphia Fed Survey

30.0

43.3

32.5

           

March 17

       

Industrial Production – February

0.3%

-0.3

0.2

 

Capacity Utilization

75.6

75.4

75.4

 

Manufacturing Output

0.3

0.2

0.4

           

Leading Indicators – February

0.3%

0.6

0.4

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (p)

96.8

96.3

97.0

           

Week of March 20

       

March 20

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.10

-0.05

             

March 21

       

Current Account – Q4

-$133.3B

-113.0

             

March 22

       

Existing Home Sales – February

5.600M

5.690

5.590

 

FHFA Housing Market Index – November

0.4%

0.4

             

March 23

       

New Home Sales – February

0.555M

0.555

0.557

           

March 24

       

Durable Good Orders – February

1.0%

2.0