The Ides Of March – Gold At $14,463 And Silver At $669

In the Roman calendar, the Ides of March was the same as March 15th in today’s calendar. This date was not significant until Julius Caesar was assassinated on 15 March 44BC. Shakespeare then coined the phrase “Beware of the Ides of March” in his Julius Caesar work.

So will March 15, 2017 be significant. We will soon know. There are some noteworthy events taking place on March 15. The debt ceiling must be reset that day and the Fed also meets to discuss a rate hike. In addition, there is the Dutch election on the same date and 8 days later the French election starts.

In normal circumstances, none of these events would be earth shattering or have major consequences for the world economy. But we don’t have a normal world – far from it. We have a world which is financially and morally sick. Regrettably the condition is so dire that there is no cure for a reprobate world.

$3/4 quadrillion of US risk

A 100-year debt explosion has created a timebomb waiting to explode. Very little is required to light it. As the biggest economy in the world, the US obviously has the biggest debt with a total of $65 trillion. To this we need to add unfunded liabilities of around $200 trillion and derivatives of circa $500 trillion. Thus, we are looking at a total US “risk” of $3/4 of a quadrillion. Many critics would say that this is a vastly exaggerated figure since it won’t all be payable in one go. But that risk is much greater than anyone can imagine. Let’s just assume that there will not be an early agreement to increase the debt ceiling. That would trigger major falls of the dollar and bond markets and probably also the overvalued stock market. The repercussions would be higher rates, higher import prices, bigger budget and trade deficits and more money printing. Inflation will increase rapidly and eventually as the dollar falls precipitously, it will lead to hyperinflation, more money printing, yet higher rates in an unstoppable vicious cycle. The derivatives market which is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates would also come under pressure leading to more money creation by the Fed.

There are major forces in the US who want to totally paralyse Trump’s ability to govern the US. This will make it virtually impossible for the current administration to govern effectively. As the financial crisis accelerates, there will be even more pressures to oust or impeach Trump. This situation will be disastrous for the US as well as for the world economy. The whole process could drag out and last until the autumn of 2017 and it could start in earnest with the Ides of March.