Written by Gary
The averages pulled back fractionally from the morning highs to trade sideways just above the unchanged line.
By noon the markets were sometimes plunging into the anemic volume levels and further market direction is not at certain. Be cautious.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is very bearish moving up from bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 24.95. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 67 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 52.6 % bullish with the status at BearCorrection. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the direction continue to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 39.24. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were are high enough to descend again – watch out!)
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at57.93 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
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