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The euro closed up after trading on Friday. The single currency managed to reach the D3 line after the publication of the US jobs report. The number of new nonfarm jobs in the states in February grew by 235,000 after a forecast of only 200,000. The figure for December was revised from 157,000 to 155,000 and for January from 227,000 to 238,000. The aggregate change for these two months comes to +9,000.

The labour force participation rate grew from 62.9% to 63%. Unemployment has fallen to 4.7% (forecasted: 4.7%, previous figure: 4.8%). Average hourly earnings in the US rose by 0.2% (forecasted: 0.3%, previous figure revised from 0.1% to 0.2%).

The euro’s initial reaction to all this data was a slide to 1.0594. The pair then started a phase of growth as traders started to buy euros on all the crosses. By the end of the day, the exchange rate has risen from 1.0582 to 1.0671.

The euro rose across the board after it was reported by Bloomberg that during their meeting, the ECB bosses had discussed the possibility of raising interest rates as the QE program reaches its final stage. They reported that the governing council didn’t make any concrete plans or set any deadlines, but that council members simply exchanged opinions on the matter.

Market expectations:

In Asia, the euro has risen to 1.0700 on the back of a slide in US bond yields and some growth on the euro index. Given that the euro grew throughout Friday and closed up, today (Monday), I’m expecting to see movement against Friday’s. In this regard, I’m setting a target of 1.0658. If buyers start to lock in their profits from the growth of the last two trading days, then we could see a price correction to 1.0632.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • ECB member Lautenschläger’s speech;
  • ECB member Draghi’s speech;
  • ECB member Constâncio’s speech;
  • ECB member Praet’s speech.

     

    • EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

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