Weekend Reading: Is The Correction Over?

This past week saw the markets rebound off their lows which has brought the “bulls” rushing back claiming the correction is over. However, is that really the case? As I questioned earlier this week:

“As you can see, the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined with the very oversold conditions, led to a frantic “short covering” rally back to previous resistance. It is worth noting that the recent market action is very similar to that of the August decline and initial rebound as well.

Of course, the question that must be answered is whether we have seen the end of the current correction or is this just another “reflexive rally” that will fail?”

“While the ‘seasonally strong’ period of the year could foster a further rally in the market, it is highly likely that it will ultimately fail. As shown, since the turn of the century there have only been two previous times when the market traded in oversold territory combined with all three major ‘sell’ signals triggered. Both of these periods marked a much more severe bear market cycle.”

“Given the late stage of the current market cycle, the issue of rising global economic weakness and deflationary pressures and deteriorating earnings, many of the “bullish” arguments have been broken.”

However, as always, it is important to look at the current market environment for opposing points of view to reduce the potential of “confirmation bias.” This weekend’s reading list provides a broad look at the current market environment from both the “bullish” and “bearish” perspective. Unfortunately, we will only know “who’s right” after the fact. 

But here is the rub.  If you choose the “bearish” view and are wrong, you only miss out on some of the rather limited potential upside from current levels. If you choose the “bullish”view and are wrong, you suffer a real destruction of investment capital.