Technical Outlook:

  • One of the most volatile quarters ever ended on a quiet note yesterday pulling back ever so slightly. 
  • Today’s morning weakness is looking at a respectable gap down. These gaps downs how been difficult for the bears to do anything with, often times leading to eventual, same-day, market rallies. 
  • Last April had a fairly significant down-day to start the month. History is apparently trying to repeat itself. 
  • Some distributional behaviors from the market over the last two days on the 30 minute chart. 
  • On the same time frame looking at the SPX, bears would need to push the market below 2020 to put in a lower-low. That applies to the daily chart as well. 
  • SPY volume ticked higher yesterday but still well below recent averages. 
  • VIX attempting to bounce off of the support level going back to the October lows of last year. 
  • Oil continuing to sell off quietly, down another 3% in the pre-market and looking to drop for the eight straight day and ninth time in the last ten days. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is trading still at its recent highs, suggesting that stocks are not yet giving up any gains of late. 
  • SPY looking to break below the 5 and 10-day moving averages today. This has been a consistent bounce area for the market. Look for where price action on SPX closes relative to these MA’s. 
  • Today will mark the end to one of the most volatile quarters the market has ever seen, and the first time since 1933 that the market has dropped over 10% and finished in the green in the same quarter – that is as long as 2044 holds today. 
  • Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 
  • Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average. 

    • My Trades:

  • Added one new swing-trade yesterday. 
  • Sold EMN yeserday at 72.41 for a 1.8% loss. 
  • Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
  • Remain long TLT at $129.52, MJN at $82.05, AMZN at $581.21
  • Will look to add 1-2 new additional positions today if dip buyers show any desire to buy up the early weakness.  
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
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