PMI Reruns

Stimulus always works because every uptick and improvement is attributed to it no matter how small and ultimately inconsequential. That has been the history of the past four years now, as the slowdown has not come at a steady pace. Nothing goes in a straight line except mainstream extrapolations of every positive variation. And when whatever indication is lower and conforming to trend, that just means more stimulus will be forthcoming. Stimulus can never lose, unlike the actual economy.

The first look at March through PMI’s has returned the positive variations as well as the “it’s over” declarations. China’s official manufacturing PMI broke back above 50 for the first time since last July, which in the mainstream means growth (which is further extrapolated into stimulus-led sustainable recovery based on only one month). A more consistent interpretation of what PMI’s actually suggest is only that March might not have been as bad as January and February, a far different perspective especially since the first two months of the year were downright horrific.

But “stimulus”:

China’s official factory gauge showed improving conditions for the first time in eight months, suggesting government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. The manufacturing purchase managers index rose to 50.2 in March, compared with a median estimate of 49.4 in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The measure matches its highest level since November 2014.

That last part, at least, is accurate as the PMI had indeed previously matched that “highest level since November 2014” in the middle of last year, which featured then the exact same rhetoric.

A Chinese manufacturing gauge for April suggested that growth may be starting to stabilize in the nation’s economy after the government spurred infrastructure investment and eased monetary policy…

“This is indeed a signal of stabilization,” said Zhu Qibing, an economist at China Minzu Securities Co. in Beijing. Zhu said electricity consumption and industrial product prices that he tracks showed a pickup in the second half of April.