The U.S. Is Already In A Recession; Get Ready For Some Crazy Monetary Policy

Jim Grant appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell and unhesitatingly said he thinks the US economy has already gone into recession:

I think we are in one…I think there’s a defensible case to be made that a recession began late last year.”

Grant echoed what Peter Schiff has been saying. In his Gold Videocast last week, Peter also said he thinks the recession started last year:

I believe eventually the government will acknowledge that this greater recession began in the fourth quarter of 2015, the very quarter that the Fed chose to raise interest rates.”

The Daily Bell hosts didn’t seem convinced by Grant’s assertion, pointing to Atlanta Federal Reserve instant analysis predicting growth in the first quarter of 2016. But Grant quickly reminded everybody that analysts generally don’t recognize the beginning of a recession until long after it’s started.

You don’t know until after the scorekeepers tally it 18 months later, in which case it’s rather academic.”

The Closing Bell hosts also tried to defend the economy by bringing up “jobs growth.” Grant had a quick response for that assertion too:

Let’s not forget employment is a lagging indicator.”

In early January, Grant joined Peter in predicting the Fed would have to backtrack on its December rate hike.

It seems to me that the Fed is more likely to go to zero than to go to one-half of one percent from here. I think the Fed felt that through a combination of institutional self-regard and as it read the data, it felt it had to move. It had been saying for so long it would, [therefore] it had to, [and] it did. That doesn’t mean it was right to do so in the Fed’s own scheme of things. I think the Fed will regret the move it did in December.”

In yesterday’s CNBC interview, Grant took things a step further, saying central banks may well go beyond negative rates and quantitative easing into even crazier monetary policy like “direct monetary funding.”