Irma Delays Uptrend

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The uptrend should continue after pausing for a correction.

SPX Intermediate trend: Unconfirmed sell signal.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Market overview:

I have been making the analysis of the market more complicated than it should be. To put it in more simple terms:

The long-term uptrend (bull market) is still positive, and it should make a new high before coming to an end.

The intermediate term trend was interrupted by the bottoming of the 40-wk cycle, which may have also created a top at 2491. This top is currently in the process of being re-tested, with the possibility that it could be exceeded by a move to about 2500 before a full-blown intermediate correction takes place, lasting into October/November.

The short-term trend is currently up since the 2417 low of 8/21. It has paused after making a higher high and appears to be close to extending its rally. It has created enough of a re-accumulation pattern to get it up to 2500 if it continues its uptrend starting Monday.

Analysis: (These Charts and subsequent ones courtesy of QCharts.com)

Daily chart

The SPX has been moving in a nice channel and it will remain in an intermediate uptrend as long as it remains in that path. I thought the 40-wk cycle which bottomed in mid-August might be the trigger which could start an intermediate decline into October/November and it still might, if the current rally from 2417 comes to an end before we can make a new high. The index would have to reverse before it gets to 2491, break below the small horizontal red line at 2446 to warn that it is turning negative, and eventually break below 2417 to confirm that the downtrend has started. Until it does this, we are still in an uptrend for all time frames. Since Friday was the low of a 6-wk cycle, unless it inverts we should be going higher over the near-term. This should have happened on Friday, but Irma probably delayed the process until Monday – best guesstimate, at least!