Europe’s On The Brink Of A Middle Eastern Crisis

Germany is gearing up for Oktoberfest, the annual beer festival that brings almost two million people and over $1 billion to Bavaria. The carnival atmosphere is mostly jovial, but does have the occasional fistfight. There’s more than a bit of puking at train stations as revelers make their way home each evening.

This year there will be something new nearby – a refugee camp.

You’ve no doubt heard of the hundreds of thousands of migrants fleeing the Middle East into more peaceful Europe.

Over 200,000 immigrants and refugees reached Germany in the first half of this year, which matches the total for all of 2014. Government officials expect the number to reach 800,000 by year end, far outpacing the previous postwar record of roughly 500,000 immigrants who landed in Germany in 1992.

At first blush this might seem like a perfect match.

Germany has a low unemployment rate at 4.7% and over half a million unfilled jobs. It has an aging population and an underfunded pension system. Adding young families and singles to the economy could provide some much-needed manpower as well as a tax base for years to come.

But there’s a long road from here to economic Nirvana.

Skilled migrants still need to learn the language and establish living quarters. Before that, border officials must document each person, whether refugee, immigrant, or ineligible. And each must be slotted for social services, employment, and education. It’s a massive undertaking.

At least at the end of it all these people will be free of persecution and become contributing members of society.

But we’re just talking about the skilled migrants. What happens to all of the unskilled people who are also fleeing persecution, or simply looking for a better life?

Without basic elementary education, much less vocational or professional training, and no knowledge of the language, these people face a much less certain path.

The good news is that Germany is a rich country with a history of welcoming and assimilating immigrants. For those that choose to stay once their homeland stabilizes (that’s a different question), life in Germany should be fairly comfortable.