Aramco: Don’t Take The Bait

Saudi Arabia has a problem. The country’s wealth is completely dependent on oil revenue, which state officials use to bribe the population into submission.

But with the price of oil hovering in the mid-$40s, after falling from over $100 in recent years, the Saudis have been dipping into their national piggy bank to make good on their social promises.

They need oil prices over $60 to balance their budget, but that might not be in the cards anytime soon. Looking at a future full of American fracking, country officials decided they needed to change course.

So, they came up with a plan.

To break the country’s dependence on oil, it will invest in other technologies and industries, retraining its working population and setting the country on a course for the 21st century.

To finance this transition, the government will sell shares in its national oil company to the public. Most likely, it’ll list shares on the national stock exchange and another in a major hub like New York or London.

When shares of the oil company, Aramco, hit the market, it could cause a feeding frenzy.

A word of advice – don’t take a bite.

Aramco could be valued between $2 trillion and $3 trillion. The Saudis are talking about selling perhaps 5% of the company, which would raise between $100 billion and $150 billion. For their investment, shareholders would get no control, no visibility, no assurance that company officials would work on their behalf, and a history full of self-interested dealings that are meant to benefit Saudis and no one else.

Thanks, but no thanks.

For those not versed in the history of Middle Eastern oil exploration, ARAMCO stands for Arabian American Oil Company. I won’t bore you with all the background details, but a few milestones are noteworthy.

In 1933, Saudi Arabia sold a concession to Standard Oil allowing the company to explore for oil. It took five years, but eventually they found it, and started paying the Saudis a set fee per unit of oil produced.