The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year growth rate of unadjusted private non-farm job openings again were insignificantly changed from last month.

Analyst Opinion of JOLTS Data

It comes as no surprise that JOLTS is continuing to show little year-over-year job openings growth. Historically, this indicates weaker employment growth. Both employment and JOLTS job openings year-over-year growth have been slowing for the past year – and the short term trend is flat. This aligns with Econintersect‘s Employment Index and the Conference Boards Employment Index – but both indices are forecasting moderate employment gains similar to the last five months weaker employment growth.

There was no market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday this month.

  • the number of unadjusted PRIVATE jobs openings – which is the most predictive of future employment growth of the JOLTS elements – shows the year-over-year growth remains near the lowest level since the Great Recession. The year-over-year growth of the unadjusted non-farm private jobs opening rate (percent of job openings compared to size of workforce) likewise shows little growth.
  • The graphs below looks at the year-over-year rate of growth for job opening levels and rate.

    • this month’s graph

    The relevance of JOLTS to future employment is obvious from the graphic below which shows JOLTS Job Openings leading or coincident to private non-farm employment. JOLTS job openings are a good predictor of jobs growth turning points – and have similar trend lines.

    The graph below uses year-over year growth comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted non-farm private BLS data versus JOLTS Job Openings – and then compare trend lines.

    Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Non-Farm Private Jobs Openings from JOLTS (blue line, left axis) compared to Unadjusted BLS Non-farm Private (red line, right axis)

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