EC 4 Things To Know About Earnings Season

Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actuals and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>

The picture emerging from the ongoing Q4 earnings season is one of steady improvement in the overall corporate earnings picture, with growth on track to reach its highest level in two years. Estimates for the current period have started coming down, but they aren’t falling as much as would typically be the case historically. All of this should add to confidence in consensus expectations for the current and following quarters when growth is expected to notably ramp up.

As of Wednesday, February 1st, we have seen Q4 results from 219 S&P 500 members or 58.8% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 219 index members are up +5.4% on +3.5% higher revenues, with 64.8% beating EPS estimates and 53.4% coming ahead of top-line expectations. The proportion of companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 37.4%.

The side-by-side charts below compare the growth rates and beat percentages for the 219 index members that have reported results with what we saw from the same companies in other recent periods.

Here are the four things to know about how this earnings season has shaped up

First, the earnings and revenue growth for this group of 219 index members is notably above other recent periods. The +5.4% Q4 earnings growth on +3.5% revenue growth compares to +2.7% earnings growth on +1.0% revenue growth for this same group of companies in 2016 Q3. The Q4 growth relative to the 4-quarter and 12-quarter averages is even pronounced.

The growth comparisons to prior periods remain favorable even when the Finance sector’s strong numbers are excluded from the aggregate results, as the right-hand chart below confirms. Excluding the Finance sector, total Q4 earnings growth drops to +3.3% (from +5.4% with Finance) on +3.3% higher revenues (+3.5% with Finance).