Largest Dow Component 3M Reports In Line Earnings, Cuts Top End Of Guidance

In what has so far been the busiest day for earnings in the third quarter reporting season, where we got earnings misses from the likes of Eli Lilly (LLY) (EPS $0.88, Exp. $0.98) and revenue misses from CAT ($9.16bn vs $9.8bn) as well as beats from Merck (MRK) (EPS $1.07, Exp. $0.98) and GM (GM) ($1.72, Exp. $1.44), much of the early attention today was focused on 3M (MMM) – at least before AAPL’s report after the close – as the conglomerate is the largest component of the Dow Jones.

The company reported in line earnings, with Q3 EPS beating expectations of $2.14 by one cent, with revenues of $7.71 printing on top of consensus estimates as industrials segment sales rose 1% in U.S. The company also reported slightly disappointing capital expenditures of $347 mm vsest. $357 million, and a 3Q operating margin of 24.7%.

And while the current quarter data was good, 3M confirmed a recurring trend observed among other reporting companies, namely skepticism about the future, when it trimmed the upper end of its full year EPS guidance:

For full-year 2016, 3M updated its forecast for earnings per share to be in the range of $8.15 to $8.20 versus a prior range of $8.15 to $8.30. The company now expects organic local-currency sales growth to be approximately flat versus a previous range of 0 to 1 percent. 3M also updated its tax rate to be approximately 29 percent versus a prior range of 29.0 to 29.5 percent. Lastly, the company continues to expect free cash flow conversion in the range of 95 to 105 percent.

It is this caution about the future that prompted JPM strategists Emmanuel Cau, Mislav Matejka to write in an novernight note that “while we believe that corporates will likely deliver their typical beats of heavily reduced estimates, we think that they will fail to drive upgrades for 4Q and for next year.”

Indeed, as a result of increasingly opaque visibility about the year’s last calendar quarter – much of the result of ongoing FX fluctuations and rising costs due to increasing wages, traders will be careful with trading purely on Q3 earnings as the current quarter may be an inflection point for the recent upward swing in corporate profitability. Add the risk of another rate hike in December, and higher interest costs, as well as declining PE multiples, and the recent thesis that much stronger than expected Q3 earnings which may finally end the 5-quarter long earnings recession will unlock the next move higher in stocks suddenly looks in doubt.