More Nonsense On China’s Demography

It is amazing how often we hear that China is experiencing some sort of crisis because of its aging population. This is supposed to lead to a situation in which it won’t have enough workers to support an aging population.

If folks have been following events in China recently its big problem is too few jobs and unemployment. It has closed a number of coal mines in recent years, leading to the loss of tens or even hundreds of thousands of jobs in the coal mining industry. Currently, it is hugely subsidizing its steel exports to keep its steel factories running. Without these subsidies, hundreds of thousands of workers could lose their jobs. There are comparable stories in many other industries.

So China’s big problem for the foreseeable future is going to be too many workers; that is 180 degrees at odds with the too few workers story that the demographic crisis people keep pitching, as in this Reuters article that appeared in the NYT Saturday. This piece includes the ominous warning:

“For the first time in decades China’s working age population fell in 2012 and the world’s most populous nation could be the first country in the world to get old before it gets rich.”

Actually, China is pretty close to getting rich. If the I.M.F.’s projections prove correct, then it will be as wealthy as countries like Portugal and Greece by the end of the next decade. (This assumes that the per capita growth rate over the rest of the decade is the same as is projected from 2019–2021.) In an international context, that would count as “rich,” and in any case many countries with lower per capita incomes already have high ratios of retirees to workers. Given its extraordinarily rapid growth over the last three and half decades China is far better positioned to care for its population of retirees than almost any other country in the developing world. 

Addendum: Numbers for Arithmetic Fans

In response to requests from Twitterland, I will show the simple arithmetic of why China need not be worried about its declining ratio of workers to retirees. This is highly stylized, but it should make the basic point.