Tomorrow’s European News: QE Works Because QE Works Even Though It Has Yet To Work

The prevailing view is that the ECB will add to QE in accompaniment of a further negative deposit rate floor. Whether or not Draghi and his orthodox economists have the gall to shunt the MRO midpoint below zero remains an open question, but what is less uncertain is that despite just about a full year of actual QE there is nothing to show for it. Even stocks, which were once so easily captured by the illusion, no longer react to the show.

Mario Draghi is having no success convincing stock investors that the European Central Bank has the firepower to reignite growth.

While all economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the central bank to cut interest rates when policy makers meet Thursday, and 73 percent project them to boost the amount of money put into the financial system through bond purchases, fund managers aren’t optimistic about a post-decision equity rally. In the first year of quantitative easing, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 17 percent, and volatility reached levels not seen since 2008. The gauge has dropped in each month but one following an ECB meeting since April.

“It won’t be easy for Draghi to bring back confidence in the recovery,” said Andreas Nigg, head of equity and commodity strategy at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich. “Growth and inflation in Europe remain stuck at low levels and earnings revisions continue to fall. The market needs better earnings revisions and better economic surprises. ”

In other words, QE is all show just as it always has been. Stock investors are catching up to the vacancy, leaving just economists and their models left to figure this all out. The whole reason again revolves around “money printing” which is nothing of the sort. The sentiment and perception still survives in the media and in general economic commentary, but markets are figuring out QE’s effects on bank reserves count for little more than rhetoric (which is what Andreas Nigg quoted above was getting at; “better earnings” not just more promises for that at some unspecified, distant date).